Between Power and Public Opinion: State Reform in Nepal
On 24 April 2025, political scientist Pawan Kumar Sen will defend his PhD dissertation, "Transforming Nepal’s Political System: Party Positions and Public Opinion (2004-2012)," at Leiden University. His research examines how Nepal’s major political parties navigated key state restructuring reforms—republicanism, secularism, multilingualism, and federalism—and how public opinion influenced their positions during the drafting of the 2015 Constitution, which changed the political landscape of Nepal considerably.
Public opinion and political transformation
Sen explains that he wanted to investigate the relationship between Nepali public opinion and the transformation of Nepal’s political system: ‘Undoubtedly, the political parties of Nepal have been the primary decision-makers in this constitutional transition, but I furthermore wanted to seek to ascertain to what extent the concerns of the Nepal’s ordinary citizens have been addressed by the political parties. I wanted to answer whether Nepal’s recent political changes, which are formalised in the new Constitution with regard to issues such as republicanism, federalism, secularism and multilingualism, are reflecting the opinions of the general public; and whether the positions of the political parties have come closer to those of the general public, or the opinions of the general public have approached the positions of the parties during the transition process.’
Dynamics of the general public’s opinions
The research reveals that there is a dominant role of political elites from the major political parties in the transformation of country’s political system. However, the parties also moderated their positions to some extent on some of the issues. ‘This is clearest on the abolition of the Hindu state,’ Sen explains. ‘The elites maintained their decision to move to a secular state, but added to the constitution a definition of ‘secularism’ that included protection for traditional religious practices.’ With regard to language policy, the eventual implementation of multilingualism in which Nepali remains the administrative language at the national level and other languages can be recognized as administrative languages in each province, can also be interpreted as a concession to public opinion. ‘The promulgation of the 2015 Constitution formally proved that the political elites of Nepal were the guardians of political tolerance and minority rights,’ Sen concludes.
‘The new constitution is an important step towards embracing the multi-ethnic, multi-lingual, multi-religious and multi-cultural character of Nepali society.’
Protecting Nepal’s minorities
Even though the new constitution is an important step towards embracing the multi-ethnic, multi-lingual, multi-religious and multi-cultural character of Nepali society, a comprehensive consensus that protects Nepal’s minorities is still to be fully realised. Sen explains that a number of rightist groups are now demanding that the country again be declared a Hindu state and a monarchy. ‘Names of provinces are also in debate,’ he adds. ‘The desire of indigenous communities to have a name of the province based on ethnic identity remained unfulfilled. Various ethnic organisations have been protesting with demands that the province must be renamed reflecting the identity of the major indigenous communities of the region.’ According to Sen, elites and mass opinion polls should be conducted to help understand the development over time of both elite and mass opinions on these issues: ‘The study of the dynamics between political elites and public opinion would profit significantly if there is an elite survey held at the same time of each public opinion survey in future, and if the question wording would be same.’
Quantitative research methods
Sen explains which methods proved most effective during his research: ‘I learnt that the quantitative research method is very important to study the transformation of the country's political system.’ According to him, elites and mass opinion polls can help to understand the dynamics in the opinions of the political elites and the general public. Furthermore, the technique called categorical principal components analysis (CATPCA) helps to investigate underlying or latent relationships among issues under study. ‘The underlying relationships between the opinions on the four political reforms were analysed through CATPCA by grouping them in same clusters with similar public opinions’, Sen explains.
Future plans
‘After the defence, I would like to continue to conduct quantitative surveys and public opinion polls in my country, Nepal, in other contemporary political and social issues,’ Sen explains. ‘I have my own research company called Himalaya Comprehensive Research Private Limited at Lalitpur, Nepal through which I will try to achieve this.’ Opinion polls are becoming increasingly common in Nepal, as they provide valuable insights for stakeholders such as political parties, independent human rights groups and civil society groups. They help identify what the public at large thinks about the political system reform and other social issues. By capturing public sentiment, opinion polls also help inform policymakers’ decisions. ‘So,’ Sen adds, ‘I would like to communicate the public’s views to key decision-makers and pressure groups of the country. This could keep the decision-makers regularly informed about the public and in turn help them in formulating their own strategies and interventions. An opinion poll, in fact, is a tool that can help democratize the polity since it provides information about what people in average think – not what the powerful or the wealthy or the intellectual think. After completing the PhD study, I will attempt to work toward this direction.’