How gas conflicts between Ukraine and Russia were the precursor to war
The war between Ukraine and Russia is playing out not just on the battlefield but also on the geopolitical playing field of gas. Conflicts at the start of this century about this energy source were, says PhD candidate Ilia Barboutev, a precursor to today’s war.
This is the first time someone has looked from Ukraine’s perspective at its ‘gas relations’ with Russia. And that is important, says Barboutev, because the country was, and still is, a transit route for Russian gas to Europe.
‘Russia still pays Ukraine for the transit of Russian gas’
‘Energy is closely intertwined with Ukrainian national sovereignty. Gas is so important for the country that it even prevails over war interests. Russia still pays Ukraine for the transit of Russian gas. That was around 800 million in the past year.’
To gain insight into the role played by gas in Ukrainian society, the PhD candidate at the Institute for History looked at two major gas conflicts from 2006 and 2009. During these crises, Russia showed it was prepared to use the gas supply as a political weapon to destabilise Ukraine and exert pressure.
Gas conflict from 2006 and new politics
Soon after Ukraine’s Orange Revolution, which brought pro-Western Viktor Yushchenko to power, Russia brought gas supplies to the country to an abrupt halt. The impact was huge: Europe, which depended on this transit, was confronted with a reduced gas supply. ‘Europe’s dependence was painfully exposed’, says Barboutev.
The conflict ended with an agreement, in which influential Ukrainian oligarch Dmytro Firtash was involved. Firtash was supported by the Kremlin and earned billions from the gas crisis, which he used to support pro-Russian politicians in his country. The agreement exposed the Ukrainian gas market even more to Russian interests.
New gas price
In 2009, Russia once again shut off gas supplies to Ukraine, which led to a two-week blockade of Europe. Ukrainian President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko were fighting at that point for power in the country. This internal division weakened Ukraine’s position in its negotiations with Russia about a new gas price. The conflict eventually led to an agreement in which Ukraine agreed to higher gas prices, which increased Russian influence and made the country more economically vulnerable.
Oligarchs and corruption
Barboutev explains how Ukrainian oligarchs increased the country’s vulnerability. The Ukrainian gas market was entwined with political interests and oligarchical structures that profited from the low gas prices from Russia. ‘These oligarchs influenced energy policy, often in line with Russian interests. And independent Ukrainian energy policy was often undermined, while the oligarchs themselves earned billions.
From economic to military pressure
In the run-up to the major invasion in 2022, Russia still used energy as a form of influence, but the focus shifted from economic pressure to military threat. According to Barboutev, the gas conflicts from 2006 and 2009 served as learning experiences allowing Russia to refine its strategic goals regarding Ukraine. The energy conflicts enabled Russia to weaken and polarise Ukraine and laid the foundations for the further militarisation of the conflict.
‘A Ukrainian commentator once wrote: “Gas is a weapon”,’ says Barboutev. ‘Which is true. If you can cause a country to freeze in winter by refusing it energy, then it is indeed a weapon. I would venture to say that the gas wars were a dress rehearsal for a much larger conflict.’
Ilia Barboutev will defend his PhD research on Wednesday 20 November at 11:30. Attend the PhD defence or watch the live stream.
Text: Tim Senden
Photo: Steven/Pixabay